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StealpadFremont, CACherry-Guardino38780 Tyson Ln Unit 207C
38780 Tyson Ln Unit 207C — 1 bd condo for sale in Cherry-Guardino, Fremont
59Fair price

38780 Tyson Ln Unit 207C

Cherry-Guardino, Fremont, CA · 94536
$399,999 23% below mkt
1 bd · 1 ba · 870 sqft · $460/sf
HOA $610/mo · 🏢 fee history ↓ · Floor 2 · 2 days on market · built 1982
💎 Hidden gem
⚖️ Adjusted valueUndervaluedasking is 14% under fair value
Model fair value · 2 sold comps · ±8%$453,991
vs model fair value · size · beds/baths · age · HOA · location−12%
Condition · Avg / verify in person0
Price history · ≈21% below its peak−2%
📐 How this Deal Score was built59Fair price
Value gap · asking vs model fair value, after condition & price history+16.8
HOA burden · $610/mo = 1.83%/yr of price vs a 1.34% norm−3.9
Days on market · 2 days — not long enough to give you leverage0
Raw advantage · the three above, combined+12.9
Model confidence · weak — ±8% typical model error across 2 sold comps. The less certain the model, the harder the gap is pulled back toward neutral×0.6
Deal Score59/100

Higher is a better buy. 50 is "priced about right for what it is". The last step curves the raw advantage onto 0–100, so points stop being one-for-one at the extremes.

💵What this unit actually costs per month

$3,148/mo all-in
20% down at 6.65% (this week's 30-year average) · mortgage + tax + insurance + HOA
Mortgage principal & interest$2,054
Property tax (1.30% effective)$433
Insurance (estimate)$50
HOA dues$610
Total monthly$3,148
Rough cash to close$90,000

35% of that payment is not the mortgage. The HOA fee alone is $36,600 over five years — money that buys you no equity. A calculator that defaulted the fee to zero would have quoted you $2,538.

Financing type

Not FHA-approved. No 3.5%-down FHA financing on this unit, so the realistic floor is a 5%-down conventional loan ($20,000). Common for small associations and not a defect on its own, but it does remove FHA buyers from your resale pool.

Minimum realistic down payment here: 5% · verify on HUD's lookup

Rate is the Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year average for the week of 2026-08-20 — a national survey figure, not a quote. Tax, insurance and closing costs are estimates; your own Loan Estimate is the real number.

This building's HOA fees

✅ Fairly steady · +4.3%/yr

Reconstructed from 12 units of recorded sales at 38780 Tyson Ln — every recorded sale carries its HOA fee and date. No listing site shows this.

$4952021$5102023$5102024$6102025$6102026
$610/mo · 2026
+23% since 2021

These dues have held relatively steady (about +4.3%/yr over 5 years across 12 units) — a good sign. Only the reserve study confirms the building is keeping up with its big-ticket repairs.

🏢 Get this building's full reserve & assessment report — free →
✅ Positives
  • 12% below model fair value
  • In-unit W/D
  • Garage parking
⚠️ Cons
  • HOA $610/mo
🚩 Red flags
  • Listed BELOW its 2019 sale ($505k) → value eroding

Photos

Price history (this unit)

Trough $269,000 Oct 14, 2004Now $399,999Peak $505,000 Apr 26, 2019
Current list price is 21% below its peak · +49% above its trough.
  • Aug 25, 2026 — Listed $399,999
  • Apr 26, 2019 — Sold (MLS) $505,000
  • Apr 26, 2019 — Sold (MLS) $505,000
  • Apr 26, 2019 — Sold (MLS) $505,000
  • Apr 26, 2019 — Sold (Public Records) $505,000
  • Mar 28, 2019 — Listed $498,000

Description

Well-maintained and move-in ready, this second-floor Fremont condo features an open-concept living and dining area with a cozy fireplace and wood mantel. The kitchen offers white cabinetry, granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances, plus the convenience of in-unit laundry. A generously sized covered patio provides additional space to relax and enjoy the outdoors. The HOA is litigation-free with no special assessments, with a new roof, exterior paint, and common-area carpeting already completed. Community amenities include a heated pool, Jacuzzi, fitness center, clubhouse, secure underground parking, gated access, and 24/7 camera monitoring. HOA dues cover water, trash, and common-a

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