🏠 Stealpad
/
StealpadFremont, CACherry-Guardino38623 Cherry Ln #121
38623 Cherry Ln #121 — 2 bd condo for sale in Cherry-Guardino, Fremont
40Priced high

38623 Cherry Ln #121

Cherry-Guardino, Fremont, CA · 94536
$570,000 ~at market (-2%)
2 bd · 1.5 ba · 929 sqft · $614/sf
HOA $582/mo · 🏢 fee history ↓ · Floor 1 · 42 days on market · built 1974
⚖️ Adjusted valueOverpricedasking is +13% over fair value
Model fair value · 1 sold comps · ±8%$516,889
vs model fair value · size · beds/baths · age · HOA · location+10%
Condition · Avg / verify in person0
Price history · at/near its all-time high+3%
📐 How this Deal Score was built40Priced high
Value gap · asking vs model fair value, after condition & price history−15.6
HOA burden · $582/mo = 1.23%/yr of price vs a 1.34% norm — at or below normal, no charge0
Days on market · 42 days — not long enough to give you leverage0
Raw advantage · the three above, combined−15.6
Model confidence · weak — ±8% typical model error across 1 sold comps. The less certain the model, the harder the gap is pulled back toward neutral×0.6
Deal Score40/100

Higher is a better buy. 50 is "priced about right for what it is". The last step curves the raw advantage onto 0–100, so points stop being one-for-one at the extremes.

💵What this unit actually costs per month

$4,177/mo all-in
20% down at 6.65% (this week's 30-year average) · mortgage + tax + insurance + HOA
Mortgage principal & interest$2,927
Property tax (1.30% effective)$618
Insurance (estimate)$50
HOA dues$582
Total monthly$4,177
Rough cash to close$128,250

30% of that payment is not the mortgage. The HOA fee alone is $34,920 over five years — money that buys you no equity. A calculator that defaulted the fee to zero would have quoted you $3,595.

Financing type

FHA approval has expired on this project. An FHA buyer cannot use it today, and the fact that it once qualified and then stopped is worth asking the board about. Plan on a conventional loan — 5% down at the very least.

Minimum realistic down payment here: 5% · verify on HUD's lookup

Rate is the Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year average for the week of 2026-08-20 — a national survey figure, not a quote. Tax, insurance and closing costs are estimates; your own Loan Estimate is the real number.

This building's HOA fees

🚩 Rising fast · +7%/yr

Reconstructed from 15 units of recorded sales at 38623 Cherry Ln — every recorded sale carries its HOA fee and date. No listing site shows this.

$4152021$4852024$5822026
$582/mo · 2026
+40% since 2021

These dues climbed 40% in 5 years — about +7%/yr across 15 units of recorded sales, well above inflation. A rise this steep is a leading signal of a special assessment, a drained reserve fund, or an insurance shock. The listing never shows it; the building's documents are where the "why" lives.

🏢 Get this building's full reserve & assessment report — free →
✅ Positives
  • In-unit W/D
  • Low HOA (1.2%/yr)
⚠️ Cons
  • 10% above model fair value
  • HOA $582/mo
  • Ground floor
🚩 Red flags

Photos

Price history (this unit)

Trough $103,000 Apr 15, 1997Now $570,000Peak $570,000 Jul 16, 2026
Current list price is 0% below its peak · +453% above its trough.
  • Jul 16, 2026 — Listed $570,000
  • Apr 15, 1997 — Sold (MLS) $103,000
  • Apr 15, 1997 — Sold (MLS) $103,000
  • Jan 2, 1997 — Listed $109,000
  • Jan 2, 1997 — Listed $109,000

Description

Welcome to this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath corner unit townhome in Fremont’s Cherry Lane community. The home features new laminate flooring, recessed lighting throughout, and a bright, comfortable layout, and two private outdoor patio spaces. The kitchen has been enhanced with additional cabinetry and counter space, providing more room for storage, meal preparation, and everyday use. Custom closet systems add even more organization throughout the home. The open living and dining area extends to a private patio, creating a comfortable space to relax or entertain. Community amenities include a swimming pool and landscaped grounds, all conveniently located near BART, shoppin

More steals in Cherry-Guardino

See all 14 condos in Cherry-Guardino →