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StealpadFremont, CACherry-Guardino38623 Cherry Ln #171
38623 Cherry Ln #171 — 3 bd condo for sale in Cherry-Guardino, Fremont
54Fair price

38623 Cherry Ln #171

Cherry-Guardino, Fremont, CA · 94536
$589,000 ~at market (+0%)
3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,199 sqft · $491/sf
HOA $582/mo · 🏢 fee history ↓ · Floor 1 · 21 days on market · built 1974
⚖️ Adjusted valueFairly pricedasking is 4% under fair value
Model fair value · 4 sold comps · ±8%$614,473
vs model fair value · size · beds/baths · age · HOA · location−4%
Condition · Avg / verify in person0
Price history · at/near its all-time high0
📐 How this Deal Score was built54Fair price
Value gap · asking vs model fair value, after condition & price history+4.8
HOA burden · $582/mo = 1.19%/yr of price vs a 1.34% norm — at or below normal, no charge0
Days on market · 21 days — not long enough to give you leverage0
Raw advantage · the three above, combined+4.8
Model confidence · moderate — ±8% typical model error across 4 sold comps. The less certain the model, the harder the gap is pulled back toward neutral×0.8
Deal Score54/100

Higher is a better buy. 50 is "priced about right for what it is". The last step curves the raw advantage onto 0–100, so points stop being one-for-one at the extremes.

💵What this unit actually costs per month

$4,295/mo all-in
20% down at 6.65% (this week's 30-year average) · mortgage + tax + insurance + HOA
Mortgage principal & interest$3,025
Property tax (1.30% effective)$638
Insurance (estimate)$50
HOA dues$582
Total monthly$4,295
Rough cash to close$132,525

30% of that payment is not the mortgage. The HOA fee alone is $34,920 over five years — money that buys you no equity. A calculator that defaulted the fee to zero would have quoted you $3,713.

Financing type

FHA approval has expired on this project. An FHA buyer cannot use it today, and the fact that it once qualified and then stopped is worth asking the board about. Plan on a conventional loan — 5% down at the very least.

Minimum realistic down payment here: 5% · verify on HUD's lookup

Rate is the Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year average for the week of 2026-08-20 — a national survey figure, not a quote. Tax, insurance and closing costs are estimates; your own Loan Estimate is the real number.

This building's HOA fees

🚩 Rising fast · +7%/yr

Reconstructed from 15 units of recorded sales at 38623 Cherry Ln — every recorded sale carries its HOA fee and date. No listing site shows this.

$4152021$4852024$5822026
$582/mo · 2026
+40% since 2021

These dues climbed 40% in 5 years — about +7%/yr across 15 units of recorded sales, well above inflation. A rise this steep is a leading signal of a special assessment, a drained reserve fund, or an insurance shock. The listing never shows it; the building's documents are where the "why" lives.

🏢 Get this building's full reserve & assessment report — free →
✅ Positives
  • In-unit W/D
  • Low HOA (1.2%/yr)
⚠️ Cons
  • HOA $582/mo
  • Ground floor
🚩 Red flags

Photos

Price history (this unit)

Only one sale-price event on record ($94,000 on Mar 30, 1987).
  • Mar 30, 1987 — Sold (Public Records) $94,000

Description

Welcome to this beautifully updated *3-bedroom, 1.5-bath* condo offering the perfect blend of comfort, style, and convenience. With street-level entry and a thoughtfully designed floor plan, this inviting home features spacious living areas, a private balcony, and an in-unit laundry closet for added everyday convenience. Recent improvements include brand-new luxury vinyl plank (LVP) flooring, fresh interior paint completed approximately three years ago, brand-new window coverings, and the added comfort of a newer in-wall air conditioning unit. The kitchen offers ample cabinet and counter space, and all appliances are included, making this home truly move-in ready. Enjoy resort-style commun

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