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Stealpad › San Leandro, CA › ZIP 94578 › 16451 Saratoga St Unit 306W
16451 Saratoga St Unit 306W — 2 bd condo for sale in ZIP 94578, San Leandro
31Overpriced

16451 Saratoga St Unit 306W

ZIP 94578, Castro Valley, CA · 94578
$450,000 19% above mkt
2 bd · 1.5 ba · 962 sqft · $468/sf
HOA $622/mo · 🏢 fee history ↓ · Floor 3 · 87 days on market · built 1981
⚖️ Adjusted valueOverpricedasking is +19% over fair value
Model fair value · 3 sold comps · ±9%$395,527
vs model fair value · size · beds/baths · age · HOA · location+14%
Condition · Avg / verify in person0
Price history · at/near its all-time high+5%
📐 How this Deal Score was built31Overpriced
Value gap · asking vs model fair value, after condition & price history−22.8
HOA burden · $622/mo = 1.66%/yr of price vs a 1.33% norm−2.6
Days on market · 87 days — it has sat, so you have leverage+3
Raw advantage · the three above, combined−22.4
Model confidence · moderate — ±9% typical model error across 3 sold comps. The less certain the model, the harder the gap is pulled back toward neutral×0.8
Deal Score31/100

Higher is a better buy. 50 is "priced about right for what it is". The last step curves the raw advantage onto 0–100, so points stop being one-for-one at the extremes.

💵What this unit actually costs per month

$3,652/mo all-in
20% down at 7.4% (this week's 30-year average) · mortgage + tax + insurance + HOA
Mortgage principal & interest$2,493
Property tax (1.30% effective)$488
Insurance (estimate)$50
HOA dues$622
Total monthly$3,652
Rough cash to close$101,250

32% of that payment is not the mortgage. The HOA fee alone is $37,320 over five years — money that buys you no equity. A calculator that defaulted the fee to zero would have quoted you $3,030.

Financing type

Not FHA-approved. No 3.5%-down FHA financing on this unit, so the realistic floor is a 5%-down conventional loan ($22,500). Common for small associations and not a defect on its own, but it does remove FHA buyers from your resale pool.

Minimum realistic down payment here: 5% · verify on HUD's lookup

Rate is the Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year average for the week of 2026-10-08 — a national survey figure, not a quote. Tax, insurance and closing costs are estimates; your own Loan Estimate is the real number.

This building's HOA fees

We haven't reconstructed a multi-year fee history for this building yet. The listing shows $622/mo today. Upload its HOA docs and we'll build the full reserve & special-assessment report — free.

🏢 Get this building's free HOA report →
✅ Positives
  • On market 87 days → some leverage
  • Upper floor (fl 3)
  • Garage parking
⚠️ Cons
  • 14% above model fair value
  • HOA $622/mo
  • Photos look dim — verify light in person
🚩 Red flags
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Photos

Price history (this unit)

Trough $104,000 Nov 30, 1988Now $450,000Peak $400,000 Jun 28, 2018
Current list price is +13% above its prior peak (listed at an all-time high) · +333% above its trough.
  • Jun 28, 2018 — Sold (Public Records) $400,000
  • Aug 17, 2001 — Sold (Public Records) $235,454
  • Mar 30, 1994 — Sold (Public Records) $129,000
  • Mar 12, 1990 — Sold (Public Records) $128,000
  • Nov 30, 1988 — Sold (Public Records) $104,000

Description

Welcome to this bright, beautifully maintained top-floor end unit featuring breathtaking panoramic Bay views, abundant natural light, and exceptional privacy. The open-concept living and dining area offers a cozy fireplace and opens to a spacious private balcony- the perfect place to relax, entertain, or enjoy spectacular sunsets. The updated kitchen features modern lighting, ample cabinetry, and a functional layout for everyday living. The spacious primary bedroom includes a walk-in closet and an adjoining half bath for added comfort and convenience. Enjoy resort-style living with access to the community swimming pool in this pet-friendly neighborhood. Ideally located near Lake Chabot…

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