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Stealpad › San Francisco, CA › ZIP 94107 › 451 Kansas St #431
451 Kansas St #431 — 2 bd condo for sale in ZIP 94107, San Francisco
22Overpriced

451 Kansas St #431

ZIP 94107, San Francisco, CA · 94107
$1,149,000 29% above mkt
2 bd · 2 ba · 928 sqft · $1,238/sf
HOA $800/mo · 🏢 fee history ↓ · Floor 4 · 10 days on market · built 2007
⚖️ Adjusted valueOverpricedasking is +29% over fair value
Model fair value · 110 sold comps · ±14%$907,980
vs model fair value · size · beds/baths · age · HOA · location+27%
Condition · Avg / verify in person0
Price history · ≈4% below its peak+2%
📐 How this Deal Score was built22Overpriced
Value gap · asking vs model fair value, after condition & price history−34.8
HOA burden · $800/mo = 0.84%/yr of price vs a 1.33% norm — at or below normal, no charge0
Days on market · 10 days — not long enough to give you leverage0
Raw advantage · the three above, combined−34.8
Model confidence · moderate — ±14% typical model error across 110 sold comps. The less certain the model, the harder the gap is pulled back toward neutral×0.8
Deal Score22/100

Higher is a better buy. 50 is "priced about right for what it is". The last step curves the raw advantage onto 0–100, so points stop being one-for-one at the extremes.

💵What this unit actually costs per month

$8,459/mo all-in
20% down at 7.4% (this week's 30-year average) · mortgage + tax + insurance + HOA
Mortgage principal & interest$6,364
Property tax (1.30% effective)$1,245
Insurance (estimate)$50
HOA dues$800
Total monthly$8,459
Rough cash to close$258,525

25% of that payment is not the mortgage. The HOA fee alone is $48,000 over five years — money that buys you no equity. A calculator that defaulted the fee to zero would have quoted you $7,659.

Financing type

Not FHA-approved. No 3.5%-down FHA financing on this unit, so the realistic floor is a 5%-down conventional loan ($57,450). Common for small associations and not a defect on its own, but it does remove FHA buyers from your resale pool.

Minimum realistic down payment here: 5% · verify on HUD's lookup

Rate is the Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year average for the week of 2026-10-08 — a national survey figure, not a quote. Tax, insurance and closing costs are estimates; your own Loan Estimate is the real number.

This building's HOA fees

2 recorded points

Reconstructed from 6 units of recorded sales at 451 Kansas St — every recorded sale carries its HOA fee and date. No listing site shows this.

$6152025$7502026
$750/mo · 2026
+22% since 2025

We have a few recorded HOA fees for this building but not yet enough to call a reliable trend, so these are the raw points — no rate implied. Its documents fill in the reserve health and assessment risk.

🏢 Get this building's full reserve & assessment report — free →
✅ Positives
  • Upper floor (fl 4)
  • Low HOA (0.8%/yr)
  • Newer build (2007)
⚠️ Cons
  • 27% above model fair value
  • HOA $800/mo
🚩 Red flags
  • Listed BELOW its 2019 sale ($1200k) → value eroding

Photos

Price history (this unit)

Trough $1,149,000 Oct 1, 2026Now $1,149,000Peak $1,200,000 Dec 30, 2019
Current list price is 4% below its peak · +0% above its trough.
  • Oct 1, 2026 — Listed $1,149,000
  • Dec 30, 2019 — Sold (Public Records) $1,200,000

Description

Welcome to a sophisticated and thoughtfully designed 2BD/2BA residence at The Potrero, offering effortless city living with a wonderful blend of indoor and outdoor space. A rare private patio spans the width of the home, creating an inviting extension of the living space near the building's beautifully landscaped courtyard. The open-concept layout is ideal for both everyday living and entertaining, with well-appointed finishes throughout. The contemporary kitchen features stainless steel appliances and a walk-in pantry and flows effortlessly into the living and dining areas. Additional highlights include new flooring and paint, an in-unit washer and dryer, spacious closet space, two…

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