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Stealpad › San Francisco, CA › Financial District / South Beach › 301 Mission St Unit 38D
301 Mission St Unit 38D — 2 bd condo for sale in Financial District / South Beach, San FranciscoNEW
14Overpriced

301 Mission St Unit 38D

Financial District / South Beach, San Francisco, CA · 94105
$2,995,000 48% above mkt
2 bd · 3 ba · 1,952 sqft · $1,534/sf
HOA $3,686/mo · 🏢 fee history ↓ · Floor 3 · 1 days on market · built 2009
⚖️ Adjusted valueOverpricedasking is +48% over fair value
Model fair value · 29 sold comps within ½ mi · ±14%$2,067,484
vs model fair value · size · beds/baths · age · HOA · location+45%
Condition · Avg / verify in person0
Price history · at/near its all-time high+3%
📐 How this Deal Score was built14Overpriced
Value gap · 48% over fair value — charged up to 40%, past that it reads as a comp artifact−48
HOA burden · $3,686/mo = 1.48%/yr of price vs a 1.29% norm−1.5
Days on market · 1 days — not long enough to give you leverage0
Raw advantage · the three above, combined−49.5
Model confidence · moderate — ±14% typical model error, 29 sold comps within half a mile. The less certain the model, the harder the gap is pulled back toward neutral×0.8
Deal Score14/100

Higher is a better buy. 50 is "priced about right for what it is". The last step curves the raw advantage onto 0–100, so points stop being one-for-one at the extremes.

💵What this unit actually costs per month

$23,212/mo all-in
20% down at 7.18% (this week's 30-year average) · mortgage + tax + insurance + HOA
Mortgage principal & interest$16,231
Property tax (1.30% effective)$3,245
Insurance (estimate)$50
HOA dues$3,686
Total monthly$23,212
Rough cash to close$673,875

30% of that payment is not the mortgage. The HOA fee alone is $221,160 over five years — money that buys you no equity. A calculator that defaulted the fee to zero would have quoted you $19,526.

Financing type

Not FHA-approved. No 3.5%-down FHA financing on this unit, so the realistic floor is a 5%-down conventional loan ($149,750). Common for small associations and not a defect on its own, but it does remove FHA buyers from your resale pool.

Minimum realistic down payment here: 5% · verify on HUD's lookup

Rate is the Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year average for the week of 2026-11-05 — a national survey figure, not a quote. Tax, insurance and closing costs are estimates; your own Loan Estimate is the real number.

This building's HOA fees

✅ Fairly steady · +4.9%/yr

Reconstructed from 31 units of recorded sales at 301 Mission St — every recorded sale carries its HOA fee and date. No listing site shows this.

$3,1772023$4,3422025$3,6662026
$3,666/mo · 2026
+15% since 2023

These dues have held relatively steady (about +4.9%/yr over 3 years across 31 units) — a good sign. Only the reserve study confirms the building is keeping up with its big-ticket repairs.

🏢 Get this building's full reserve & assessment report — free →
✅ Positives
  • Brand-new listing
  • Upper floor (fl 3)
  • Newer build (2009)
⚠️ Cons
  • 45% above model fair value
  • HOA $3686/mo
🚩 Red flags
  • Very high HOA $3686/mo (full-service high-rise)

Photos

Price history (this unit)

Trough $1,899,000 Jun 3, 2022Now $2,995,000Peak $2,995,000 Nov 7, 2026
Current list price is 0% below its peak · +58% above its trough.
  • Nov 7, 2026 — Listed $2,995,000
  • Sep 6, 2022 — Sold (MLS) $1,910,000
  • Sep 6, 2022 — Sold (Public Records) $1,910,000
  • Jun 3, 2022 — Listed $1,899,000
  • Mar 10, 2010 — Sold (Public Records) $2,762,500

Description

Sweeping Bay Bridge views define this southeast corner residence, where morning light pours in and Salesforce Park sits right next door. The Bay Bridge light installation is visible from every window, and on a clear day the view extends to the San Mateo Bridge. The thoughtfully designed interior features a Studio Becker gourmet kitchen with honed marble countertops, custom motorized dual-shade window treatments, and abundant built-in storage. Beech hardwood floors run throughout. A split-bedroom layout offers privacy, and the library can serve as an optional third bedroom. Millennium Tower is a fully amenitized luxury high-rise in the heart of downtown San Francisco, with 24-hour concierge…

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