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Stealpad › Hayward, CA › ZIP 94546 › 21314 Gary Dr #314
21314 Gary Dr #314 — 2 bd condo for sale in ZIP 94546, Hayward
56Fair price

21314 Gary Dr #314

ZIP 94546, Hayward, CA · 94546
$425,000 9% below mkt
2 bd · 2 ba · 1,100 sqft · $386/sf
HOA $710/mo · 🏢 fee history ↓ · Floor 3 · 16 days on market · built 1991
💎 Hidden gem
⚖️ Adjusted valueUndervaluedasking is 9% under fair value
Model fair value · 12 sold comps · ±7%$483,112
vs model fair value · size · beds/baths · age · HOA · location−12%
Condition · Avg / verify in person0
Price history · at/near its all-time high+3%
📐 How this Deal Score was built56Fair price
Value gap · asking vs model fair value, after condition & price history+10.8
HOA burden · $710/mo = 2%/yr of price vs a 1.33% norm−5.4
Days on market · 16 days — not long enough to give you leverage0
Raw advantage · the three above, combined+5.4
Model confidence · strong — ±7% typical model error across 12 sold comps. The less certain the model, the harder the gap is pulled back toward neutral×1
Deal Score56/100

Higher is a better buy. 50 is "priced about right for what it is". The last step curves the raw advantage onto 0–100, so points stop being one-for-one at the extremes.

💵What this unit actually costs per month

$3,575/mo all-in
20% down at 7.4% (this week's 30-year average) · mortgage + tax + insurance + HOA
Mortgage principal & interest$2,354
Property tax (1.30% effective)$460
Insurance (estimate)$50
HOA dues$710
Total monthly$3,575
Rough cash to close$95,625

34% of that payment is not the mortgage. The HOA fee alone is $42,600 over five years — money that buys you no equity. A calculator that defaulted the fee to zero would have quoted you $2,865.

Rate is the Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year average for the week of 2026-10-08 — a national survey figure, not a quote. Tax, insurance and closing costs are estimates; your own Loan Estimate is the real number.

This building's HOA fees

🚩 Rising fast · +10.7%/yr

Reconstructed from 10 units of recorded sales at 21314 Gary Dr — every recorded sale carries its HOA fee and date. No listing site shows this.

$4732022$5462023$6192024$6772025$7102026
$710/mo · 2026
+50% since 2022

These dues climbed 50% in 4 years — about +10.7%/yr across 10 units of recorded sales, well above inflation. A rise this steep is a leading signal of a special assessment, a drained reserve fund, or an insurance shock. The listing never shows it; the building's documents are where the "why" lives.

🏢 Get this building's full reserve & assessment report — free →
✅ Positives
  • Cheapest of 5 tracked in Mesa Verde
  • 12% below model fair value
  • Upper floor (fl 3)
  • In-unit W/D
⚠️ Cons
  • HOA $710/mo
  • Photos look dim — verify light in person
🚩 Red flags
  • HOA rising ~11%/yr in this building ($473/mo in 2022 → $710)

Photos

Price history (this unit)

Trough $199,000 Jul 8, 1992Now $425,000Peak $425,000 Sep 25, 2026
Current list price is 0% below its peak · +114% above its trough.
  • Sep 25, 2026 — Listed $425,000
  • Jul 8, 1992 — Sold (Public Records) $199,000

Description

Welcome to Mesa Verde! This 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom condo has an updated kitchen, laminate flooring throughout the living areas, carpet in the bedroom, a laundry closet, dining area, and all appliances are included.

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