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Stealpad › Fremont, CA › Cherry-Guardino › 38623 Cherry Ln #150
38623 Cherry Ln #150 — 3 bd condo for sale in Cherry-Guardino, Fremont
66Good value

38623 Cherry Ln #150

Cherry-Guardino, Fremont, CA · 94536
$550,000 12% below mkt
3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,199 sqft · $459/sf
HOA $582/mo · 🏢 fee history ↓ · Floor 1 · 4 days on market · built 1974
💎 Hidden gem
⚖️ Adjusted valueUndervaluedasking is 12% under fair value
Model fair value · 10 sold comps within ½ mi · ±8%$662,450
vs model fair value · size · beds/baths · age · HOA · location−17%
Condition · Avg / verify in person0
Price history · at/near its all-time high+5%
📐 How this Deal Score was built66Good value
Value gap · asking vs model fair value, after condition & price history+14.4
HOA burden · $582/mo = 1.27%/yr of price vs a 1.29% norm — at or below normal, no charge0
Days on market · 4 days — not long enough to give you leverage0
Raw advantage · the three above, combined+14.4
Model confidence · strong — ±8% typical model error, 10 sold comps within half a mile. The less certain the model, the harder the gap is pulled back toward neutral×1
Deal Score66/100

Higher is a better buy. 50 is "priced about right for what it is". The last step curves the raw advantage onto 0–100, so points stop being one-for-one at the extremes.

💵What this unit actually costs per month

$4,209/mo all-in
20% down at 7.18% (this week's 30-year average) · mortgage + tax + insurance + HOA
Mortgage principal & interest$2,981
Property tax (1.30% effective)$596
Insurance (estimate)$50
HOA dues$582
Total monthly$4,209
Rough cash to close$123,750

29% of that payment is not the mortgage. The HOA fee alone is $34,920 over five years — money that buys you no equity. A calculator that defaulted the fee to zero would have quoted you $3,627.

Financing type

FHA approval has expired on this project. An FHA buyer cannot use it today, and the fact that it once qualified and then stopped is worth asking the board about. Plan on a conventional loan — 5% down at the very least.

Minimum realistic down payment here: 5% · verify on HUD's lookup

Rate is the Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year average for the week of 2026-11-05 — a national survey figure, not a quote. Tax, insurance and closing costs are estimates; your own Loan Estimate is the real number.

This building's HOA fees

🚩 Rising fast · +7%/yr

Reconstructed from 17 units of recorded sales at 38623 Cherry Ln — every recorded sale carries its HOA fee and date. No listing site shows this.

$4152021$4852024$5822026
$582/mo · 2026
+40% since 2021

These dues climbed 40% in 5 years — about +7%/yr across 17 units of recorded sales, well above inflation. A rise this steep is a leading signal of a special assessment, a drained reserve fund, or an insurance shock. The listing never shows it; the building's documents are where the "why" lives.

🏢 Get this building's full reserve & assessment report — free →
✅ Positives
  • 17% below model fair value
  • In-unit W/D
  • Garage parking
  • Low HOA (1.3%/yr)
⚠️ Cons
  • HOA $582/mo
  • Ground floor
  • Photos look dim — verify light in person
🚩 Red flags
  • Only 1 photo — verify condition

Photos

Price history (this unit)

Trough $155,000 Jan 6, 2012Now $550,000Peak $160,000 Aug 7, 1998
Current list price is +244% above its prior peak (listed at an all-time high) · +255% above its trough.
  • Jan 6, 2012 — Sold (MLS) $155,000
  • Aug 7, 1998 — Sold (MLS) $160,000

Description

Welcome to this beautifully renovated 3 bed, 1.5 bath townhouse-style home in the heart of Fremont, where modern style, comfort, and convenience come together! Step inside and discover a bright, inviting home featuring today's most desirable colors, contemporary finishes, and thoughtful upgrades throughout. Stylish flooring, fresh interior paint, updated appliances, and recessed lighting create a fresh, modern atmosphere. An updated heating and air conditioning system adds year-round comfort, making this home as practical as it is beautiful. The community offers a swimming pool, clubhouse, children's playground, and landscaped pathways. Recent new plumbing and upgraded water shutoff…

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