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Stealpad › Fremont, CA › Cherry-Guardino › 38627 Cherry Ln #53
38627 Cherry Ln #53 — 2 bd condo for sale in Cherry-Guardino, Fremont
38Priced high

38627 Cherry Ln #53

Cherry-Guardino, Fremont, CA · 94536
$549,000 11% above mkt
2 bd · 1.5 ba · 938 sqft · $585/sf
HOA $582/mo · 🏢 fee history ↓ · Floor 5 · 25 days on market · built 1974
⚖️ Adjusted valueOverpricedasking is +11% over fair value
Model fair value · 4 sold comps · ±8%$499,901
vs model fair value · size · beds/baths · age · HOA · location+10%
Condition · Avg / verify in person0
Price history · ≈7% below its peak+1%
📐 How this Deal Score was built38Priced high
Value gap · asking vs model fair value, after condition & price history−13.2
HOA burden · $582/mo = 1.27%/yr of price vs a 1.33% norm — at or below normal, no charge0
Days on market · 25 days — not long enough to give you leverage0
Raw advantage · the three above, combined−13.2
Model confidence · moderate — ±8% typical model error across 4 sold comps. The less certain the model, the harder the gap is pulled back toward neutral×0.8
Deal Score38/100

Higher is a better buy. 50 is "priced about right for what it is". The last step curves the raw advantage onto 0–100, so points stop being one-for-one at the extremes.

💵What this unit actually costs per month

$4,268/mo all-in
20% down at 7.4% (this week's 30-year average) · mortgage + tax + insurance + HOA
Mortgage principal & interest$3,041
Property tax (1.30% effective)$595
Insurance (estimate)$50
HOA dues$582
Total monthly$4,268
Rough cash to close$123,525

29% of that payment is not the mortgage. The HOA fee alone is $34,920 over five years — money that buys you no equity. A calculator that defaulted the fee to zero would have quoted you $3,686.

Financing type

FHA approval has expired on this project. An FHA buyer cannot use it today, and the fact that it once qualified and then stopped is worth asking the board about. Plan on a conventional loan — 5% down at the very least.

Minimum realistic down payment here: 5% · verify on HUD's lookup

Rate is the Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year average for the week of 2026-10-08 — a national survey figure, not a quote. Tax, insurance and closing costs are estimates; your own Loan Estimate is the real number.

This building's HOA fees

🚩 Rising fast · +7%/yr

Reconstructed from 11 units of recorded sales at 38627 Cherry Ln — every recorded sale carries its HOA fee and date. No listing site shows this.

$4152021$4852024$5852025$5822026
$582/mo · 2026
+40% since 2021

These dues climbed 40% in 5 years — about +7%/yr across 11 units of recorded sales, well above inflation. A rise this steep is a leading signal of a special assessment, a drained reserve fund, or an insurance shock. The listing never shows it; the building's documents are where the "why" lives.

🏢 Get this building's full reserve & assessment report — free →
✅ Positives
  • Upper floor (fl 5)
  • In-unit W/D
  • Low HOA (1.3%/yr)
⚠️ Cons
  • 10% above model fair value
  • HOA $582/mo
🚩 Red flags
—

Photos

Price history (this unit)

Trough $279,000 Aug 6, 2004Now $549,000Peak $588,000 Jun 8, 2021
Current list price is 7% below its peak · +97% above its trough.
  • Sep 16, 2026 — Listed $549,000
  • Oct 16, 2025 — Rental Removed $3,000
  • Oct 12, 2025 — Price Changed $3,000
  • Oct 9, 2025 — Price Changed $2,900
  • Oct 4, 2025 — Listed for Rent $3,000
  • May 3, 2024 — Rental Removed $2,700

Description

Welcome to this inviting townhouse-style condominium in Fremont’s desirable Cherry-Guardino community. Offering 938 sq. ft. of living space, 2 bedrooms, and 1.5 bathrooms, this two-story home combines a spacious layout with comfortable everyday living. The main level features an open-concept living and dining area with beautiful vinyl flooring and abundant recessed lighting. The updated kitchen offers white cabinetry, quartz countertops, stainless-steel appliances, a breakfast counter, and ample workspace, creating a functional and contemporary setting for cooking and entertaining. Sliding glass doors provide access to the outdoor area just outside of the common pool, bringing in natural…

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