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Stealpad › Fremont, CA › Cherry-Guardino › 38623 Cherry Ln #193
38623 Cherry Ln #193 — 2 bd condo for sale in Cherry-Guardino, Fremont
39Priced high

38623 Cherry Ln #193

Cherry-Guardino, Fremont, CA · 94536
$539,000 8% above mkt
2 bd · 1.5 ba · 938 sqft · $575/sf
HOA $582/mo · 🏢 fee history ↓ · Floor 1 · 17 days on market · built 1974
⚖️ Adjusted valueOverpricedasking is +8% over fair value
Model fair value · 97 sold comps · ±8%$511,848
vs model fair value · size · beds/baths · age · HOA · location+5%
Condition · Avg / verify in person0
Price history · at/near its all-time high+3%
📐 How this Deal Score was built39Priced high
Value gap · asking vs model fair value, after condition & price history−9.6
HOA burden · $582/mo = 1.3%/yr of price vs a 1.33% norm — at or below normal, no charge0
Days on market · 17 days — not long enough to give you leverage0
Raw advantage · the three above, combined−9.6
Model confidence · strong — ±8% typical model error across 97 sold comps. The less certain the model, the harder the gap is pulled back toward neutral×1
Deal Score39/100

Higher is a better buy. 50 is "priced about right for what it is". The last step curves the raw advantage onto 0–100, so points stop being one-for-one at the extremes.

💵What this unit actually costs per month

$4,201/mo all-in
20% down at 7.4% (this week's 30-year average) · mortgage + tax + insurance + HOA
Mortgage principal & interest$2,986
Property tax (1.30% effective)$584
Insurance (estimate)$50
HOA dues$582
Total monthly$4,201
Rough cash to close$121,275

29% of that payment is not the mortgage. The HOA fee alone is $34,920 over five years — money that buys you no equity. A calculator that defaulted the fee to zero would have quoted you $3,619.

Financing type

FHA approval has expired on this project. An FHA buyer cannot use it today, and the fact that it once qualified and then stopped is worth asking the board about. Plan on a conventional loan — 5% down at the very least.

Minimum realistic down payment here: 5% · verify on HUD's lookup

Rate is the Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year average for the week of 2026-10-08 — a national survey figure, not a quote. Tax, insurance and closing costs are estimates; your own Loan Estimate is the real number.

This building's HOA fees

🚩 Rising fast · +7%/yr

Reconstructed from 16 units of recorded sales at 38623 Cherry Ln — every recorded sale carries its HOA fee and date. No listing site shows this.

$4152021$4852024$5822026
$582/mo · 2026
+40% since 2021

These dues climbed 40% in 5 years — about +7%/yr across 16 units of recorded sales, well above inflation. A rise this steep is a leading signal of a special assessment, a drained reserve fund, or an insurance shock. The listing never shows it; the building's documents are where the "why" lives.

🏢 Get this building's full reserve & assessment report — free →
✅ Positives
  • In-unit W/D
  • Low HOA (1.3%/yr)
⚠️ Cons
  • HOA $582/mo
  • Ground floor
🚩 Red flags
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Photos

Price history (this unit)

Trough $78,000 May 22, 1987Now $539,000Peak $539,000 Sep 24, 2026
Current list price is 0% below its peak · +591% above its trough.
  • Sep 24, 2026 — Listed $539,000
  • Sep 24, 2026 — Listed $539,000
  • Nov 24, 1993 — Sold (Public Records) $106,500
  • May 22, 1987 — Sold (Public Records) $78,000

Description

Beautifully updated & centrally located in Fremont, this inviting 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath condo offers a comfortable and thoughtfully designed floor plan. Walk into the generously spaced living room which features a durable ceramic tile flooring that flows throughout the first floor & includes a wall-mounted AC unit. Enjoy an updated kitchen showcasing quartz countertops & a brand-new stove/oven range. Breakfast nook off of the kitchen & living room & a convenient downstairs half bath adds functionality. Private patio off of the kitchen slider provides a nice space for outdoor entertainment. The spacious upstairs bedrooms have oversized closets. There is a full bathroom and convenient full-size…

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