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Stealpad › San Francisco, CA › ZIP 94123 › 2801 Octavia St #4
2801 Octavia St #4 — 2 bd condo for sale in ZIP 94123, San Francisco
15Overpriced

2801 Octavia St #4

ZIP 94123, San Francisco, CA · 94123
$3,468,000 121% above mkt
2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,734 sqft · $2,000/sf
HOA $1,487/mo · 🏢 fee history ↓ · Floor 1 · 42 days on market · built 1933
⚖️ Adjusted valueOverpricedasking is +121% over fair value
Model fair value · 9 sold comps · ±14%$1,567,289
vs model fair value · size · beds/baths · age · HOA · location+121%
Condition · Avg / verify in person0
Price history · at/near its all-time high0
📐 How this Deal Score was built15Overpriced
Value gap · 121% over fair value — charged up to 40%, past that it reads as a comp artifact−48
HOA burden · $1,487/mo = 0.51%/yr of price vs a 1.33% norm — at or below normal, no charge0
Days on market · 42 days — not long enough to give you leverage0
Raw advantage · the three above, combined−48
Model confidence · moderate — ±14% typical model error across 9 sold comps. The less certain the model, the harder the gap is pulled back toward neutral×0.8
Deal Score15/100

Higher is a better buy. 50 is "priced about right for what it is". The last step curves the raw advantage onto 0–100, so points stop being one-for-one at the extremes.

💵What this unit actually costs per month

$24,503/mo all-in
20% down at 7.4% (this week's 30-year average) · mortgage + tax + insurance + HOA
Mortgage principal & interest$19,209
Property tax (1.30% effective)$3,757
Insurance (estimate)$50
HOA dues$1,487
Total monthly$24,503
Rough cash to close$780,300

22% of that payment is not the mortgage. The HOA fee alone is $89,220 over five years — money that buys you no equity. A calculator that defaulted the fee to zero would have quoted you $23,016.

Financing type

Not FHA-approved. No 3.5%-down FHA financing on this unit, so the realistic floor is a 5%-down conventional loan ($173,400). Common for small associations and not a defect on its own, but it does remove FHA buyers from your resale pool.

Minimum realistic down payment here: 5% · verify on HUD's lookup

Rate is the Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year average for the week of 2026-10-08 — a national survey figure, not a quote. Tax, insurance and closing costs are estimates; your own Loan Estimate is the real number.

This building's HOA fees

We haven't reconstructed a multi-year fee history for this building yet. We have one recorded fee on file ($1,487 in 2026), not enough for a trend yet. The listing shows $1,487/mo today. Upload its HOA docs and we'll build the full reserve & special-assessment report — free.

🏢 Get this building's free HOA report →
✅ Positives
  • Garage parking
  • Low HOA (0.5%/yr)
⚠️ Cons
  • 121% above model fair value
  • HOA $1487/mo
  • Older building (1933)
🚩 Red flags
  • Very high HOA $1487/mo (full-service high-rise)

Photos

Price history (this unit)

Only one sale-price event on record ($3,468,000 on Aug 30, 2026).
  • Aug 30, 2026 — Listed $3,468,000

Description

Never before available one-of-a-kind 2 bedroom 2.5 bath penthouse in an impeccably maintained boutique Art Deco corner property. Perfectly situated in Cow Hollow at the residential edge of the heart of Union Street, this location is well off the Van Ness-Lombard 101 corridor yet steps directly into the North San Francisco urban village of Union Street, Chestnut Street, Pacific Heights, the Presidio, and the Marina. At 1,734 square feet, this home was thoughtfully reimagined and condo-converted from the studs, including bespoke contemporary design and high-end finishes, two ensuite bedrooms, a powder room, a fireplace, a private deck, and both City and Bay views. This is the first time this…

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