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Stealpad › Oakland, CA › Grand Lake › 551 Jean St #309
551 Jean St #309 — 1 bd condo for sale in Grand Lake, Oakland
42Priced high

551 Jean St #309

Grand Lake, Oakland, CA · 94610
$320,000 ~at market (-1%)
1 bd · 1 ba · 676 sqft · $473/sf
HOA $782/mo · 🏢 fee history ↓ · Floor 3 · 93 days on market · built 1971
⚠️ HOA trap
⚖️ Adjusted valueFairly pricedasking is 1% under fair value
Model fair value · 5 sold comps · ±15%$334,647
vs model fair value · size · beds/baths · age · HOA · location−4%
Condition · 1971 lightly updated: white cab+granite+2%
Price history · ≈9% below its peak+1%
📐 How this Deal Score was built42Priced high
Value gap · asking vs model fair value, after condition & price history+1.2
HOA burden · $782/mo = 2.93%/yr of price vs a 1.33% norm−12.8
Days on market · 93 days — it has sat, so you have leverage+3
Raw advantage · the three above, combined−8.6
Model confidence · moderate — ±15% typical model error across 5 sold comps. The less certain the model, the harder the gap is pulled back toward neutral×0.8
Deal Score42/100

Higher is a better buy. 50 is "priced about right for what it is". The last step curves the raw advantage onto 0–100, so points stop being one-for-one at the extremes.

💵What this unit actually costs per month

$2,951/mo all-in
20% down at 7.4% (this week's 30-year average) · mortgage + tax + insurance + HOA
Mortgage principal & interest$1,772
Property tax (1.30% effective)$347
Insurance (estimate)$50
HOA dues$782
Total monthly$2,951
Rough cash to close$72,000

40% of that payment is not the mortgage. The HOA fee alone is $46,920 over five years — money that buys you no equity. A calculator that defaulted the fee to zero would have quoted you $2,169.

Rate is the Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year average for the week of 2026-10-08 — a national survey figure, not a quote. Tax, insurance and closing costs are estimates; your own Loan Estimate is the real number.

This building's HOA fees

🚩 Rising fast · +11.1%/yr

Reconstructed from 8 units of recorded sales at 551 Jean St — every recorded sale carries its HOA fee and date. No listing site shows this.

$5702023$5982024$6122025$7822026
$782/mo · 2026
+37% since 2023

These dues climbed 37% in 3 years — about +11.1%/yr across 8 units of recorded sales, well above inflation. A rise this steep is a leading signal of a special assessment, a drained reserve fund, or an insurance shock. The listing never shows it; the building's documents are where the "why" lives.

🏢 Get this building's full reserve & assessment report — free →
✅ Positives
  • Low sticker
⚠️ Cons
  • Smallest tier (564 sf)
  • Ground floor
🚩 Red flags
  • 28% above comps on $/sf
  • HOA $690/mo
  • Ground-floor security/privacy

Photos

Price history (this unit)

Trough $76,000 Feb 1, 1990Now $320,000Peak $350,000 Jul 10, 2026
Current list price is 9% below its peak · +321% above its trough.
  • Jul 10, 2026 — Listed $350,000
  • Sep 19, 2000 — Sold (Public Records) $187,000
  • Feb 1, 1990 — Sold (Public Records) $76,000
  • Mar 25, 1988 — Sold (Public Records) $45,000

Description

Comfort, Convenience, and Location! Discover the wonderful blend of comfort, convenience, and vibrant neighborhood living in this freshly painted third-floor condominium just steps from the iconic Morcom Rose Garden. Filled with natural light, the open-concept floor plan features engineered wood flooring, an efficient all-electric kitchen with granite countertops, an expansive floor-to-ceiling hall closet, and a spacious private balcony accessed through a large dual-pane sliding door—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The thoughtfully oriented carpeted bedroom enjoys a generous closet, and the bathroom features stone flooring with a shower-over-tub. Additional amenities include a gated…

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