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Stealpad › Oakland, CA › Grand Lake › 427 Lagunitas Ave #305
427 Lagunitas Ave #305 — 1 bd condo for sale in Grand Lake, Oakland
17Overpriced

427 Lagunitas Ave #305

Grand Lake, Oakland, CA · 94610
$444,000 34% above mkt
1 bd · 1 ba · 643 sqft · $691/sf
HOA $581/mo · 🏢 fee history ↓ · Floor 3 · 26 days on market · built 1967
⚖️ Adjusted valueOverpricedasking is +34% over fair value
Model fair value · 38 sold comps · ±15%$334,867
vs model fair value · size · beds/baths · age · HOA · location+33%
Condition · Interior not shown — verify0
Price history · ≈10% below its peak+1%
📐 How this Deal Score was built17Overpriced
Value gap · asking vs model fair value, after condition & price history−40.8
HOA burden · $581/mo = 1.57%/yr of price vs a 1.33% norm−1.9
Days on market · 26 days — not long enough to give you leverage0
Raw advantage · the three above, combined−42.7
Model confidence · moderate — ±15% typical model error across 38 sold comps. The less certain the model, the harder the gap is pulled back toward neutral×0.8
Deal Score17/100

Higher is a better buy. 50 is "priced about right for what it is". The last step curves the raw advantage onto 0–100, so points stop being one-for-one at the extremes.

💵What this unit actually costs per month

$3,571/mo all-in
20% down at 7.4% (this week's 30-year average) · mortgage + tax + insurance + HOA
Mortgage principal & interest$2,459
Property tax (1.30% effective)$481
Insurance (estimate)$50
HOA dues$581
Total monthly$3,571
Rough cash to close$99,900

31% of that payment is not the mortgage. The HOA fee alone is $34,860 over five years — money that buys you no equity. A calculator that defaulted the fee to zero would have quoted you $2,990.

Financing type

Not FHA-approved. No 3.5%-down FHA financing on this unit, so the realistic floor is a 5%-down conventional loan ($22,200). Common for small associations and not a defect on its own, but it does remove FHA buyers from your resale pool.

Minimum realistic down payment here: 5% · verify on HUD's lookup

Rate is the Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year average for the week of 2026-10-08 — a national survey figure, not a quote. Tax, insurance and closing costs are estimates; your own Loan Estimate is the real number.

This building's HOA fees

We haven't reconstructed a multi-year fee history for this building yet. We have one recorded fee on file ($576 in 2026), not enough for a trend yet. The listing shows $581/mo today. Upload its HOA docs and we'll build the full reserve & special-assessment report — free.

🏢 Get this building's free HOA report →
✅ Positives
  • Top floor — no one above (quiet, light)
  • Low HOA (1.4%/yr)
  • Nice glassed lobby, wood-burning fireplace + balcony
⚠️ Cons
  • Smallish (643 sf)
  • Dated common areas (carpeted corridors)
🚩 Red flags
  • WORST $/sf of all 24 (76% above comps)
  • Hero photo flagged "Digitally Altered"

Photos

Price history (this unit)

Trough $65,000 Sep 25, 1986Now $444,000Peak $495,000 Nov 3, 2017
Current list price is 10% below its peak · +583% above its trough.
  • Sep 15, 2026 — Listed $444,000
  • Nov 3, 2017 — Sold (MLS) $495,000
  • Nov 3, 2017 — Sold (Public Records) $495,000
  • Sep 22, 2017 — Listed $449,000
  • Jun 23, 2015 — Sold (MLS) $450,000
  • Jun 23, 2015 — Sold (Public Records) $450,000

Description

Welcome to this cozy 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo just 0.4 miles from Lake Merritt. Featuring an open floor plan, private balcony, and rooftop deck with spectacular 360-degree views of Lake Merritt, the Oakland Hills, Grand Lake Theatre sign, and cityscape. With a 99/100 Walk Score, Lake Merritt, Grand Lake Farmers Market, Grand Lake Theatre, Trader Joe’s, restaurants, coffee, and shops are all within easy walking distance. I-580 and Downtown Oakland are nearby, with convenient access to BART. Includes one garage parking space plus street parking.

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