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Stealpad › Fremont, CA › Warm Springs › 45128 Warm Springs Blvd #351
45128 Warm Springs Blvd #351 — 2 bd condo for sale in Warm Springs, Fremont
49Fair price

45128 Warm Springs Blvd #351

Warm Springs, Fremont, CA · 94539
$875,000 ~at market (+1%)
2 bd · 2 ba · 1,301 sqft · $673/sf
HOA $508/mo · 🏢 fee history ↓ · Floor 3 · 39 days on market · built 2019
⚖️ Adjusted valueFairly pricedasking is +1% over fair value
Model fair value · 97 sold comps · ±8%$866,852
vs model fair value · size · beds/baths · age · HOA · location+1%
Condition · Avg / verify in person0
Price history · ≈5% below its peak0
📐 How this Deal Score was built49Fair price
Value gap · asking vs model fair value, after condition & price history−1.2
HOA burden · $508/mo = 0.7%/yr of price vs a 1.33% norm — at or below normal, no charge0
Days on market · 39 days — not long enough to give you leverage0
Raw advantage · the three above, combined−1.2
Model confidence · strong — ±8% typical model error across 97 sold comps. The less certain the model, the harder the gap is pulled back toward neutral×1
Deal Score49/100

Higher is a better buy. 50 is "priced about right for what it is". The last step curves the raw advantage onto 0–100, so points stop being one-for-one at the extremes.

💵What this unit actually costs per month

$6,353/mo all-in
20% down at 7.4% (this week's 30-year average) · mortgage + tax + insurance + HOA
Mortgage principal & interest$4,847
Property tax (1.30% effective)$948
Insurance (estimate)$50
HOA dues$508
Total monthly$6,353
Rough cash to close$196,875

24% of that payment is not the mortgage. The HOA fee alone is $30,480 over five years — money that buys you no equity. A calculator that defaulted the fee to zero would have quoted you $5,845.

Financing type

Not FHA-approved. No 3.5%-down FHA financing on this unit, so the realistic floor is a 5%-down conventional loan ($43,750). Common for small associations and not a defect on its own, but it does remove FHA buyers from your resale pool.

Minimum realistic down payment here: 5% · verify on HUD's lookup

Rate is the Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year average for the week of 2026-10-08 — a national survey figure, not a quote. Tax, insurance and closing costs are estimates; your own Loan Estimate is the real number.

This building's HOA fees

🚩 Rising fast · +7.8%/yr

Reconstructed from 22 units of recorded sales at 45128 Warm Springs Blvd — every recorded sale carries its HOA fee and date. No listing site shows this.

$5042022$6252023$6302024$7042025$7092026
$709/mo · 2026
+46% since 2021

These dues climbed 46% in 5 years — about +7.8%/yr across 22 units of recorded sales, well above inflation. A rise this steep is a leading signal of a special assessment, a drained reserve fund, or an insurance shock. The listing never shows it; the building's documents are where the "why" lives.

🏢 Get this building's full reserve & assessment report — free →
✅ Positives
  • Upper floor (fl 3)
  • Garage parking
  • Low HOA (0.7%/yr)
  • Newer build (2019)
⚠️ Cons
  • Photos look dim — verify light in person
🚩 Red flags
—

Photos

Price history (this unit)

Only one sale-price event on record ($920,000 on Sep 2, 2026).
  • Sep 2, 2026 — Listed $920,000
  • Sep 2, 2026 — Listed $920,000

Description

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