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StealpadFremont, CAWarm Springs196 Carson Falls Ter
196 Carson Falls Ter — 2 bd condo for sale in Warm Springs, Fremont
57Fair price

196 Carson Falls Ter

Warm Springs, Fremont, CA · 94539
$928,800 ~at market (-1%)
2 bd · 3 ba · 1,496 sqft · $621/sf
No HOA listed · 3 days on market · built 2021
💎 Hidden gem
⚖️ Adjusted valueUndervaluedasking is 8% under fair value
Model fair value · 1 sold comps · ±8%$1,012,622
vs model fair value · size · beds/baths · age · HOA · location−8%
Condition · Avg / verify in person0
Price history · limited sale history0
📐 How this Deal Score was built57Fair price
Value gap · asking vs model fair value, after condition & price history+9.6
HOA burden · no HOA published — estimated at 0.88%/yr so missing data isn't a free pass0
Days on market · 3 days — not long enough to give you leverage0
Raw advantage · the three above, combined+9.6
Model confidence · weak — ±8% typical model error across 1 sold comps. The less certain the model, the harder the gap is pulled back toward neutral×0.6
Deal Score57/100

Higher is a better buy. 50 is "priced about right for what it is". The last step curves the raw advantage onto 0–100, so points stop being one-for-one at the extremes.

💵What this unit actually costs per month

$5,826/mo all-in
20% down at 6.65% (this week's 30-year average) · mortgage + tax + insurance
Mortgage principal & interest$4,770
Property tax (1.30% effective)$1,006
Insurance (estimate)$50
Total monthly$5,826
Rough cash to close$208,980
Financing type

Not FHA-approved. No 3.5%-down FHA financing on this unit, so the realistic floor is a 5%-down conventional loan ($46,440). Common for small associations and not a defect on its own, but it does remove FHA buyers from your resale pool.

Minimum realistic down payment here: 5% · verify on HUD's lookup

Rate is the Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year average for the week of 2026-08-20 — a national survey figure, not a quote. Tax, insurance and closing costs are estimates; your own Loan Estimate is the real number.

This building's HOA fees

We haven't reconstructed a multi-year fee history for this building yet. Upload its HOA docs and we'll build the full reserve & special-assessment report — free.

🏢 Get this building's free HOA report →
✅ Positives
  • Undervalued once condition & history are priced in
  • Newer build (2021)
⚠️ Cons
  • Photos look dim — verify light in person
🚩 Red flags

Photos

Price history (this unit)

Description

The popular model called The Juniper II" (Also described as Sierra Collection Plan 4) in the 55+ community of Enclave at Mission Falls. End unit of two story town house style condo. First floor: entry, garage, elevator, one bedroom and one full bath. Second floor: kitchen, living/dining area, covered deck, laundry, powder room, and primary suite with bath. The unit is equipped with a private in-house elevator. Beatifull kitchen has island, stone counter top, gas burned stove, stainless steel appliances, and etc. In-house laundry. Solar system, central HVAC. Community has BBC area, play ground and EV charge station. Close to four shopping plazas, which has Ranch 99, Safeway, Osaka Japane

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