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Stealpad › Oakland, CA › Temescal › 851 Arlington Ave
851 Arlington Ave — 2 bd condo for sale in Temescal, Oakland
51Fair price

851 Arlington Ave

Temescal, Oakland, CA · 94608
$498,000 ~at market (+4%)
2 bd · 1 ba · 875 sqft · $569/sf
HOA $350/mo · 🏢 fee history ↓ · 170 days on market · built 1911
⏳ Sitting — leverage
⚖️ Adjusted valueFairly pricedasking is +4% over fair value
Model fair value · 1 sold comps · ±15%$460,566
vs model fair value · size · beds/baths · age · HOA · location+8%
Condition · Renovated 1911: shaker+stone+stainless−2%
Price history · ≈22% below its peak−2%
📐 How this Deal Score was built51Fair price
Value gap · asking vs model fair value, after condition & price history−4.8
HOA burden · $350/mo = 0.84%/yr of price vs a 1.33% norm — at or below normal, no charge0
Days on market · 170 days — it has sat, so you have leverage+6
Raw advantage · the three above, combined+1.2
Model confidence · weak — ±15% typical model error across 1 sold comps. The less certain the model, the harder the gap is pulled back toward neutral×0.6
Deal Score51/100

Higher is a better buy. 50 is "priced about right for what it is". The last step curves the raw advantage onto 0–100, so points stop being one-for-one at the extremes.

💵What this unit actually costs per month

$3,698/mo all-in
20% down at 7.4% (this week's 30-year average) · mortgage + tax + insurance + HOA
Mortgage principal & interest$2,758
Property tax (1.30% effective)$540
Insurance (estimate)$50
HOA dues$350
Total monthly$3,698
Rough cash to close$112,050

25% of that payment is not the mortgage. The HOA fee alone is $21,000 over five years — money that buys you no equity. A calculator that defaulted the fee to zero would have quoted you $3,348.

Financing type

Not FHA-approved. No 3.5%-down FHA financing on this unit, so the realistic floor is a 5%-down conventional loan ($24,900). Common for small associations and not a defect on its own, but it does remove FHA buyers from your resale pool.

Minimum realistic down payment here: 5% · verify on HUD's lookup

Rate is the Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year average for the week of 2026-10-08 — a national survey figure, not a quote. Tax, insurance and closing costs are estimates; your own Loan Estimate is the real number.

This building's HOA fees

We haven't reconstructed a multi-year fee history for this building yet. We have one recorded fee on file ($350 in 2026), not enough for a trend yet. The listing shows $350/mo today. Upload its HOA docs and we'll build the full reserve & special-assessment report — free.

🏢 Get this building's free HOA report →
✅ Positives
  • On market 170 days → strong negotiating leverage
  • In-unit W/D
  • Low HOA (0.8%/yr)
⚠️ Cons
  • Older building (1911)
  • Only 1 bath
🚩 Red flags
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Photos

Price history (this unit)

Trough $369,000 Apr 2, 2014Now $498,000Peak $640,000 Apr 24, 2026
Current list price is 22% below its peak · +35% above its trough.
  • Jun 9, 2026 — Price Changed $598,000
  • Apr 24, 2026 — Listed $640,000
  • Apr 30, 2014 — Sold (MLS) $395,000
  • Apr 29, 2014 — Sold (Public Records) $395,000
  • Apr 2, 2014 — Listed $369,000

Description

Morning light moves easily through this home. Set along a quiet, tree-lined stretch of Arlington Avenue, this cheery two-bedroom Edwardian unfolds with an immediate sense of calm and openness. Positioned on the second floor of a classic four-unit building, the home’s eastern exposure welcomes soft morning light that gently fills the living spaces as the day begins. The layout has been thoughtfully reimagined into an open-concept design, where the kitchen becomes the natural center of daily life. Anchored by stone counters, stainless steel appliances, and clean modern lines, it’s a space suited for both quiet mornings and easy evenings with friends, spilling out to an inviting balcony just…

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