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StealpadAlameda, CAZIP 945012426 Lincoln Ave Unit J
2426 Lincoln Ave Unit J — 2 bd condo for sale in ZIP 94501, Alameda
61Fair price

2426 Lincoln Ave Unit J

ZIP 94501, Alameda, CA · 94501
$499,000 9% below mkt
2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,085 sqft · $460/sf
HOA $637/mo · 🏢 fee history ↓ · 13 days on market · built 1975
💎 Hidden gem
⚖️ Adjusted valueUndervaluedasking is 15% under fair value
Model fair value · 2 sold comps · ±9%$567,602
vs model fair value · size · beds/baths · age · HOA · location−12%
Condition · Avg / verify in person0
Price history · ≈23% below its peak−3%
📐 How this Deal Score was built61Fair price
Value gap · asking vs model fair value, after condition & price history+18
HOA burden · $637/mo = 1.53%/yr of price vs a 1.34% norm−1.5
Days on market · 13 days — not long enough to give you leverage0
Raw advantage · the three above, combined+16.5
Model confidence · weak — ±9% typical model error across 2 sold comps. The less certain the model, the harder the gap is pulled back toward neutral×0.6
Deal Score61/100

Higher is a better buy. 50 is "priced about right for what it is". The last step curves the raw advantage onto 0–100, so points stop being one-for-one at the extremes.

💵What this unit actually costs per month

$3,790/mo all-in
20% down at 6.65% (this week's 30-year average) · mortgage + tax + insurance + HOA
Mortgage principal & interest$2,563
Property tax (1.30% effective)$541
Insurance (estimate)$50
HOA dues$637
Total monthly$3,790
Rough cash to close$112,275

32% of that payment is not the mortgage. The HOA fee alone is $38,220 over five years — money that buys you no equity. A calculator that defaulted the fee to zero would have quoted you $3,153.

Financing type

Not FHA-approved. No 3.5%-down FHA financing on this unit, so the realistic floor is a 5%-down conventional loan ($24,950). Common for small associations and not a defect on its own, but it does remove FHA buyers from your resale pool.

Minimum realistic down payment here: 5% · verify on HUD's lookup

Rate is the Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year average for the week of 2026-08-20 — a national survey figure, not a quote. Tax, insurance and closing costs are estimates; your own Loan Estimate is the real number.

This building's HOA fees

3 recorded points

Reconstructed from 4 units of recorded sales at 2426 Lincoln Ave — every recorded sale carries its HOA fee and date. No listing site shows this.

$4872021$4872022$6372026
$637/mo · 2026
+31% since 2021

We have a few recorded HOA fees for this building but not yet enough to call a reliable trend, so these are the raw points — no rate implied. Its documents fill in the reserve health and assessment risk.

🏢 Get this building's full reserve & assessment report — free →
✅ Positives
  • 12% below model fair value
  • Garage parking
⚠️ Cons
  • HOA $637/mo
  • Photos look dim — verify light in person
🚩 Red flags
  • Listed BELOW its 2022 sale ($648k) → value eroding

Photos

Price history (this unit)

Trough $83,500 Aug 28, 1996Now $499,000Peak $649,999 Oct 29, 2021
Current list price is 23% below its peak · +498% above its trough.
  • Aug 14, 2026 — Listed $499,000
  • May 11, 2022 — Sold (MLS) $648,000
  • May 11, 2022 — Sold (Public Records) $648,000
  • Oct 29, 2021 — Price Changed $649,999
  • Oct 28, 2021 — Listed $598,000
  • Oct 10, 2007 — Sold (MLS) $370,000

Description

Two private garages with automatic openers convey with this home — genuinely uncommon on Alameda's East End, and useful for far more than parking. Workshop, gym, studio, or room for everything that never fits in a condo. Unit J lives like a townhouse, not a flat. Two levels, its own entry, and no one above or below you — the two things people most wish they could change about condo living, already solved. It sits in a gated garden complex of just ten homes. The main level opens into a light-filled living and dining space with vinyl plank flooring, recessed lighting, and shutters. An updated kitchen with ample cabinetry anchors one end, and a half bath keeps guests off the stairs.

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