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Stealpad › Oakland, CA › Uptown › 438 W Grand Ave #405
438 W Grand Ave #405 — 3 bd condo for sale in Uptown, Oakland
54Fair price

438 W Grand Ave #405

Uptown, Oakland, CA · 94612
$995,000 ~at market (-4%)
3 bd · 3 ba · 2,074 sqft · $480/sf
HOA $1,102/mo · 🏢 fee history ↓ · Floor 4 · 16 days on market · built 2008
⚖️ Adjusted valueFairly pricedasking is 4% under fair value
Model fair value · 9 sold comps · ±15%$1,033,906
vs model fair value · size · beds/baths · age · HOA · location−4%
Condition · Avg / verify in person0
Price history · limited sale history0
📐 How this Deal Score was built54Fair price
Value gap · asking vs model fair value, after condition & price history+4.8
HOA burden · $1,102/mo = 1.33%/yr of price vs a 1.33% norm — at or below normal, no charge0
Days on market · 16 days — not long enough to give you leverage0
Raw advantage · the three above, combined+4.8
Model confidence · moderate — ±15% typical model error across 9 sold comps. The less certain the model, the harder the gap is pulled back toward neutral×0.8
Deal Score54/100

Higher is a better buy. 50 is "priced about right for what it is". The last step curves the raw advantage onto 0–100, so points stop being one-for-one at the extremes.

💵What this unit actually costs per month

$7,741/mo all-in
20% down at 7.4% (this week's 30-year average) · mortgage + tax + insurance + HOA
Mortgage principal & interest$5,511
Property tax (1.30% effective)$1,078
Insurance (estimate)$50
HOA dues$1,102
Total monthly$7,741
Rough cash to close$223,875

29% of that payment is not the mortgage. The HOA fee alone is $66,120 over five years — money that buys you no equity. A calculator that defaulted the fee to zero would have quoted you $6,639.

Financing type

Not FHA-approved. No 3.5%-down FHA financing on this unit, so the realistic floor is a 5%-down conventional loan ($49,750). Common for small associations and not a defect on its own, but it does remove FHA buyers from your resale pool.

Minimum realistic down payment here: 5% · verify on HUD's lookup

Rate is the Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year average for the week of 2026-10-08 — a national survey figure, not a quote. Tax, insurance and closing costs are estimates; your own Loan Estimate is the real number.

This building's HOA fees

🚩 Rising fast · +6.8%/yr

Reconstructed from 21 units of recorded sales at 438 W Grand Ave — every recorded sale carries its HOA fee and date. No listing site shows this.

$6702021$6782022$8582025$9292026
$929/mo · 2026
+39% since 2021

These dues climbed 39% in 5 years — about +6.8%/yr across 21 units of recorded sales, well above inflation. A rise this steep is a leading signal of a special assessment, a drained reserve fund, or an insurance shock. The listing never shows it; the building's documents are where the "why" lives.

🏢 Get this building's full reserve & assessment report — free →
✅ Positives
  • Upper floor (fl 4)
  • Low HOA (1.3%/yr)
  • Newer build (2008)
⚠️ Cons
  • HOA $1102/mo
🚩 Red flags
  • Very high HOA $1102/mo (full-service high-rise)

Photos

Price history (this unit)

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Description

A rare offering at the Broadway Grand, this expansive 3-bedroom, 3-bath corner residence combines exceptional space, flexibility, and modern comfort in the heart of Uptown Oakland. With beautiful flooring and high ceilings throughout, this coveted corner unit enjoys abundant natural light and a sense of privacy. The main level is designed around a large, open living space, where the kitchen with bar seating flows seamlessly into the dining and living areasideal for everyday living and entertaining. A bedroom and full bath on this level offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or single-level living needs. Downstairs, a generous bonus space creates a second living area with endless…

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